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Q.Is Nara's population shrinking?

Published 2026-06-19

Answer

Yes. Nara Prefecture's population peaked in 2000 at about 1.44 million (1,442,795) and has been falling ever since. The latest estimate puts it at roughly 1.27 million (1,266,804) as of June 1, 2026 — a drop of about 176,000 from the peak.

Peaked in 2000, declining ever since

Nara's population peaked at 1,442,795 in the 2000 national census. Until around 1995 it had been growing faster than the national average, but the trend reversed in the late 1990s. By the 2020 census it had fallen to 1,324,473 — about 118,000 fewer (roughly 8%) than the peak. The latest prefectural estimate puts it at 1,266,804 people in 562,440 households as of June 1, 2026.

1,442,795Peak population (2000 census)

1,266,804Latest estimate (June 2026)

−176,000decline since the peak (2000→2026)

How much it has fallen in 25 years

The milestone years show the trend clearly: about 1.44 million in 2000, 1.32 million in 2020, and roughly 1.27 million in the June 2026 estimate. The fall from the peak is about 176,000. Nara Prefecture's Population Vision attributes this to natural decline combined with net out-migration toward urban centers such as Osaka.

YearPopulationSource
2000 (peak)1,442,795National census
20201,324,473National census
June 1, 20261,266,804Pref. estimate

In the southern villages, decline and aging hit harder

Aging is advancing prefecture-wide: the share of residents aged 65+ was 31.7% in the 2020 census, about 3.1 points above the national average of 28.7%. But the strain is most visible in the southern Kii Mountains. Kawakami Village fell about 12%, from 1,313 people in 2015 to 1,156 in 2020, with an aging rate of 55.6% in 2020 — more than half its residents were 65 or older. Totsukawa, too, had only about 2,709 residents as of April 2025, a vast village of about 672 km² now home to just a few thousand people.

31.7%prefecture aging rate (2020; nation 28.7%)

55.6%Kawakami aging rate (2020)

−12%Kawakami population (2015→2020)

Datasets behind this article

Sources