Q.Is Nara's population shrinking?
Published 2026-06-19
Answer
Yes, it is. Nara Prefecture's population peaked in 2000 at about 1.44 million (1,442,795) and has been falling ever since. The latest estimate puts it at roughly 1.27 million (1,267,857) as of May 1, 2026 — a drop of about 175,000 from the peak. The decline is especially severe in the southern mountain villages: in Kawakami, more than half the residents were 65 or older as of 2020 (an aging rate of 55.6%).
Peaked in 2000, declining ever since
Nara's population peaked at 1,442,795 in the 2000 national census. Until around 1995 it had been growing faster than the national average, but the trend reversed in the late 1990s. By the 2020 census it had fallen to 1,324,473 — about 118,000 fewer (roughly 8%) than the peak. It stood at about 1.27 million in 2025, and the latest prefectural estimate puts it at 1,267,857 (562,405 households) as of May 1, 2026.
1,442,795Peak population (2000 census)
1,267,857Latest estimate (May 2026)
−175,000decline since the peak (2000→2026)
How much it has fallen in 25 years
Lining up the milestone years shows the trend clearly: about 1.44 million in 2000, 1.32 million in 2020, 1.27 million in 2025, and roughly 1.27 million in the May 2026 estimate. The fall from the peak is about 175,000 — comparable to an entire mid-sized city vanishing. Nara Prefecture's Population Vision attributes this to natural decline (fewer births, more deaths) combined with net out-migration as people moved back toward urban centers like Osaka.
- 20001442795people
- 20201324473people
- May 20261267857people
| Year | Population | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 (peak) | 1,442,795 | National census |
| 2020 | 1,324,473 | National census |
| May 1, 2026 | 1,267,857 | Pref. estimate |
In the southern villages, decline and aging hit harder
Aging is advancing prefecture-wide: the share of residents aged 65+ was 31.7% in the 2020 census, about 3.1 points above the national average of 28.7%. But the strain is most visible in the southern Kii Mountains. Kawakami Village fell about 12%, from 1,313 people in 2015 to 1,156 in 2020, with an aging rate of 55.6% in 2020 — more than half its residents were 65 or older. Totsukawa, too, had only about 2,709 residents as of April 2025, a vast village over 100 km² now home to just a few thousand people.
31.7%prefecture aging rate (2020; nation 28.7%)
55.6%Kawakami aging rate (2020)
−12%Kawakami population (2015→2020)