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Q.How many more visitors could World Heritage status bring to Asuka-Fujiwara?

Published 2026-10-16

Answer

NRI economist Takahide Kiuchi projects about 660,000 additional visits a year, with ¥4.43 billion in direct economic effects and ¥7.09 billion including ripple effects. Kansai University Professor Emeritus Katsuhiro Miyamoto estimates about ¥4.99 billion in output generated in the inscription year. These are forecasts with different assumptions, not measured results.

What is behind the forecast of 660,000 extra visits?

In his July 27, 2026 NRI column, Takahide Kiuchi estimates roughly 4.5 million annual visits to Asuka, Kashihara and Sakurai before inscription. He assumes a 60% increase in the roughly 1.1 million visits affected by the listing, yielding 660,000 additional visits—not a 60% increase across all 4.5 million. Katsuhiro Miyamoto’s pre-inscription estimate, released by Kansai University on June 24, projects ¥4,993.11 million in output and 686 jobs in the inscription year. Assumptions such as the increase in visitors are not publicly available. The two forecasts differ in assumptions and definitions and cannot be compared directly.

ItemNRI: Takahide KiuchiKansai University: Katsuhiro Miyamoto
ReleasedJuly 27, 2026June 24, 2026 (before inscription)
ScopeAnnual visits to Asuka, Kashihara and SakuraiEconomic effects in the inscription year
Visitor increase assumed60% of approx. 1.1M = approx. 660,000Not public
Economic effectDirect: approx. ¥4.43bn; including ripple effects: approx. ¥7.09bnOutput generated: approx. ¥4,993.11M
Jobs generatedNot stated686

Why does NRI expect a smaller surge than at Iwami or Tomioka?

NRI’s July 27, 2026 column argues that Asuka-Fujiwara is already familiar from school textbooks and that its archaeological remains are less visible, limiting the likely surge. Shimane’s 2007 tourism survey records 400,000 visits to Iwami Ginzan in 2006 and 713,700 in its inscription year, 2007: an increase of about 78%. This is the period behind NRI’s “about 75%” comparison, separate from the peak in 2008. Tomioka City Tourism Association’s annual admissions table, dated April 2, 2026, records 314,516 in FY2013 and 1,337,720 in the inscription year, FY2014—about 4.25 times as many. These ratios are calculated from published figures. The related article on towns after World Heritage inscription follows their longer-term trajectories.

How much accommodation is available?

Nara Prefecture’s 2025 accommodation report, released in July 2026, lists 66 establishments and 1,029 rooms in Area B as of the fourth quarter of 2025. Guest-nights rose from 309,192 in 2024 to 359,127 in 2025. Area B includes Yamato-Takada and Gose as well as Kashihara, Sakurai and Asuka. MLIT’s Document 8, citing Asuka Village, reports 47 establishments, 70 rooms and 5,785 overnight guests in FY2022; each private home rental is counted as one room. NRI estimates that only about 10% of visitors who stay overnight do so within Asuka itself. The village’s 2022–2023 visitor survey reproduced in the MLIT document indicates a similar share. This is not 10% of all visitors.

The actual effect still needs to be measured

As of October 2026, official visitor statistics establishing the post-inscription increase have not been published. The additional 660,000 visits and economic effects discussed here are forecasts, not observed increases or sales. Future comparisons need to distinguish destination visits from facility admissions, calendar years from fiscal years, and the three municipalities from accommodation Area B.

Datasets behind this article

Related reading

Sources